Suspense and surprise

Abstract

We model demand for noninstrumental information, drawing on the idea that people derive entertainment utility from suspense and sur- prise. A period has more suspense if the variance of the next period’s beliefs is greater. A period has more surprise if the current belief is further from the last period’s belief. Under these definitions, we ana- lyze the optimal way to reveal information over time so as to maximize expected suspense or surprise experienced by a Bayesian audience.We apply our results to the design of mystery novels, political primaries, casinos, game shows, auctions, and sports.