Space governance: Risks, frameworks, and futures

Abstract

The current international space governance framework has proven unsuit- able for regulating emerging and future space activities. Rapid technological progress in the outer space domain has led to increasingly fragmented, less inclusive, and less effective multilateral institutions. Adaptive governance is an effective model for addressing the technological and environmental uncertainties of the outer space domain. This paper breaks down gover- nance challenges in the outer space domain into three separate eras starting from the present: the New Space Era, the In-Space Economy Era, and the Transformative Technologies Era. The New Space Era has demonstrated the weaknesses of the current governance framework to adopt and enforce rules and norms in outer space. Unless space governance frameworks are improved, risks associated with space exploration will continue to increase throughout the In-Space Economy Era and Transformative Technologies Era as the space domain becomes more technologically advanced and integral to society. The introduction of transformative technologies, particularly trans- formative artificial intelligence (TAI), will allow for the emergence of greater catastrophic, existential, and suffering risks in the outer space domain. Im- proved governance mechanisms and frameworks are proposed which would allow for inclusive, adaptive, and scalable institutions that are well-suited to address space governance issues from the present into the long-term future. We present four policy proposals to improve the present space governance framework: shared infrastructure, horizon scanning, a conflict resolution mechanism, and a verification agency. Furthermore, we present four longter- mist proposals to improve the norms, values, and institutional structures that guide future spacefaring: adaptive forums, a communication network, moral circle expansion, and values handshakes.