Julia Galef Interviews Philip Tetlock for ‘The Ezra Klein Show’

Abstract

The widespread misconception among experts of their predictive capabilities, coupled with an inadequate emphasis on the importance of forecasting in policy-making and life in general, underlies the need for a paradigm shift in our perception of prediction and our ability to refine said skill. Philip E. Tetlock’s research at the University of Pennsylvania and the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania defies the notion that predictive proficiency is a haphazard occurrence, revealing that those known as “superforecasters” possess a set of identifiable habits and mindsets that can be cultivated in others, thereby, creating a class of highly capable forecasters that can serve as a valuable asset to institutions. – AI-generated abstract.