The impact of articial intelligence: A historical perspective

Abstract

This chapter argues that articial intelligence is beginning to emerge as a general purpose technology. Exploring historical examples of general purpose technologies, such as electricity and the digital computer, could help us to anticipate and think clearly about its future impact. One lesson from history is that general purpose technologies typically lead to broad economic, military, and political transformations. Another lesson is that these transformations typically unfold very gradually, and in a staggered fashion, due to various frictions and barriers to impact. This chapter goes on to argue that articial intelligence could also constitute a revolutionary technology. If it ultimately supplants human labor in most domains, then it would likely catalyze a period of unusually profound change. The closest analogues to this period in world history would be the Neolithic Revolution and the Industrial Revolution.