Guesstimate: An app for making decisions with confidence (intervals)
Effective Altruism Forum, December 30, 2015
Abstract
I’m happy to announce the public beta of Guesstimate, a web app for creating models and Fermi estimates with probability distributions. It’s free, open source, and relatively easy to use. . Effective Altruism is largely about optimizing expected value. Expected value estimates often have high uncertainty for multiple inputs, but the uncertainty of the outputs is rarely calculated.
