How to estimate the EV of general intellectual progress
Effective Altruism Forum, January 26, 2020
Abstract
Some possible setups:
Say an intervention costs $10,000,000.00, and speeds up the field of information theory by 1% per year for 10 years. Say a great paper is written in information theory that gets N citations.
What are some reasonable approaches to estimating the expected values of such setups?
