Professor Philip Tetlock’s research on improving judgments of existential risk

Abstract

Professor Philip Tetlock et al. discuss the importance of developing methods to improve accurate long-term forecasting of existential risks and present their vision of key challenges and solutions for doing so. They explore the shortcomings of traditional forecasting tournaments and propose a second-generation of tournaments that can address these limitations, focusing on early warning indicators, insightful explanations, and active participation of high-value contributors. The researchers also suggest methods to incentivize accurate forecasting, recruit and motivate talent, and manage information hazards. By combining traditional techniques with more experimental methods, they aim to build a discipline of second-generation forecasting that can help policymakers anticipate and mitigate global catastrophic risks. – AI-generated abstract.