SIA doomsday: the filter is ahead

Abstract

This work applies the self-indication assumption (SIA) to the great filter scenario and argues that a significant portion of the great filter lies ahead of humanity. SIA says that if one wonders which world they are in, they should update on their existence by weighting possible worlds as more likely the more observers they contain. Considering diagrams with three possible worlds where the filter is in different places and assuming the filter is more likely to be ahead than behind, the author concludes that we are much more likely to be in worlds where the filter is ahead than behind. – AI-generated abstract.