Which stage of effectiveness matters most?

Abstract

Effective altruism is an approach to charity that prioritizes interventions that are most likely to have a positive impact. The author of this forum post argues that within the space of effective altruism, there are two distinct levels of effectiveness: interventions that are plausibly effective and interventions that are very probably effective. The author asks whether the greatest gains in effectiveness come from encouraging people to move from obviously ineffective interventions to plausibly effective ones, or from encouraging people to move from plausibly effective interventions to very probably effective ones. The author argues that the latter is more likely, but that it requires more research and stronger intellectual standards. – AI-generated abstract.