Some survey results!

Abstract

Opinions of machine learning researchers regarding artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) timelines, implications, and related factors were surveyed in 2017. When researchers were asked to forecast how long it would take for AI to reach human-like or higher levels of intelligence, they gave later estimates than in previous surveys. Shifting the framing of a question from asking about years to asking about probabilities resulted in earlier estimates. Furthermore, researchers showed differing views on how soon narrow AI milestones would be reached compared to broader AI milestones and human occupation automation. Varying opinions existed among researchers, with those educated in Asia giving shorter timelines than those educated in North America. Additionally, the premises and conclusions of arguments about AI safety resonated with many researchers, highlighting concerns and the need for increased attention to safety measures within the field. – AI-generated abstract.