Evidence, cluelessness and the long term

Abstract

Principles of effective altruism counsel paying close attention to the evidence, to find the most cost-effective opportunities to do good. But evidence covers only the more immediate effects of any intervention, and it’s highly likely the vast majority of the value is thereby omitted from the calculation. Hilary discusses the range of possible responses to this fact, and in particular whether it supports or instead undermines “longtermism”.