Climate change & longtermism

Abstract

This work examines the long-term impact of climate change. It argues that the risk of climate change causing human extinction is low, but that climate change will nevertheless impose substantial costs on humanity. The work outlines the likely range of warming on different emissions scenarios and concludes that the risk of extremely high warming (above 6°C) is now lower than previously thought. It argues that even extreme warming will not be sufficient to destroy global agriculture, though it will impose large costs on the poorest countries. While the work acknowledges the possibility of tipping points in the climate system, it argues that the effects of these will also fall short of causing human extinction. The work concludes that climate change poses a serious risk to human flourishing, but that the impacts of warming are unlikely to be civilization-ending. – AI-generated abstract.