Idea futures: Encouraging an honest consensus

Abstract

This paper suggests a new social institution, called “idea futures,” which can create a visible expert consensus with clear incentives for honest contribution. Idea futures might offer these and many other benefits cheaply and without coercion. It is intended to aid the evolution of a wide range of ideas, from public policy to the nature of the universe, and in particular should be able to help us predict and understand our future. The basic concept is to combine two phenomena, convergence and markets, and so make “a futures market in ideas.” The chapter describes the procedures intended to allow idea futures to handle as many claims as possible.