Long legacies and fights

Abstract

Hanson discusses the difficulty of influencing the long-term future. He argues that the world is in a state of rough equilibrium, where any small perturbation is quickly washed away by various forces. He compares the world to a river flowing to the sea, where small actions taken far from the sea have little impact on its final destination. Hanson also discusses the concept of “plastic” and “rigid” things in the world, arguing that the former are easy to influence but the influence doesn’t last, while the latter are hard to change but any change is long-lasting. He suggests that the most promising way to influence the future is to find “plastic” things that will become “rigid” in the future, as they can be influenced early on and will retain that influence later. Hanson concludes by comparing the world to a game where various cultural units are competing to influence the future, and suggesting that the key to winning is to find a “winning” unit to join and help it grow. – AI-generated abstract.