Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections

Abstract

Simulations published between 1970 and 2007 by early climate models showed skill in projecting subsequent increases in global mean surface temperature, with most models exhibiting warming consistent with observations, particularly when mismatches between model-projected and observationally-estimated forcings were accounted for. Model simulations were evaluated using both the change in global mean surface temperature over time and the change in global mean surface temperature over the change in external forcing. When mismatches between projected and observed forcings were accounted for, most models examined showed warming consistent with observations, with 14 out of 17 falling within the confidence interval of observational estimates. These findings indicate that climate models are effectively capturing processes driving the multi-decadal evolution of global mean surface temperature. – AI-generated abstract.