Estimating the impact of the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief on HIV treatment and prevention programmes in Africa

Abstract

The US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has significantly impacted the fight against HIV in sub-Saharan Africa since 2004. Mathematical modelling of PEPFAR-supported interventions from 2004 to 2013 in 16 African countries estimated that these programs, including antiretroviral treatment (ART), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT), and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), averted nearly 2.9 million HIV infections, 9 million orphans, and resulted in 11.6 million life years gained. These findings highlight the substantial impact of PEPFAR programs in reducing HIV transmission, preventing orphanhood, and extending the lives of people living with HIV. However, these estimates likely underestimate the overall impact as they do not account for the effects of non-biomedical interventions such as behavioral and structural interventions included in PEPFAR’s comprehensive approach.