Estimating the impact of the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief on HIV treatment and prevention programmes in Africa

Abstract

The US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has dramatically expanded HIV prevention, care, and treatment services in sub-Saharan Africa since 2004. A model evaluating the impact of PEPFAR’s antiretroviral treatment (ART), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT), and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs from 2004 to 2013 in 16 PEPFAR countries found that these efforts have averted 2.9 million HIV infections, almost 9 million orphans, and resulted in 11.6 million life years gained. The model suggests that the rapid scale-up of PEPFAR-funded programs significantly reduced new HIV infections and orphaned children, extending the lives of people living with HIV. Importantly, this analysis does not account for the impact of PEPFAR-funded non-biomedical interventions, so the actual number of averted infections, orphans, and life years gained may be even greater.