Strong longtermism and the challenge from anti-aggregative moral views

Abstract

Strong longtermism claims that in most situations, the option that is ex ante best is the one that makes the very long-run future go best. This view is incompatible with a range of non-aggregative and partially aggregative moral views, which disagree with strong longtermism in situations where we have to choose between meeting the strongest individual claim in the present and setting up a reliable mechanism that will deliver smaller benefits to a large number of people in the long run. Also, strong longtermism conflicts with anti-aggregative views when we must choose between giving a certain benefit to a small number of people in the present or giving a very small probability of a significant benefit to a large number of people in the long run. Therefore, those in favor of strong longtermism must argue against non-aggregative and partially aggregative moral views, adopting a fully aggregative view, instead of trying to accommodate them. – AI-generated abstract.