Geopolitics and the measurement of national power

Abstract

This dissertation presents and compares all known formulas for the calculation of the power of nation states. The presentation is encyclopedic in character, and the comparison involves analyzing the indicators used, as well as the theoretical and conceptual considerations underlying their selection and weighting. The results of calculations based on the power formulas are provided, offering a topical insight into the global distribution of power. This work makes a distinction between theoretical power formulas and operational power formulas, concerning itself primarily with the latter, which are formulas for the purpose of calculation. The power formulas under discussion consist of several variables, whose number varies from two to 236. Since the advent of the internet the average number of variables used has more than doubled from 13 to 28. Power measurements based on single indicators are considered only briefly and to a lesser extent. This dissertation first explains the scientific and historical roots of power formulas. This explanation starts in German geopolitics, continues through American geopolitics, and touches upon geoeconomic approaches. Then power concepts and definitions in different schools of international relations are discussed. A connection is made to the power formulas described later, along with an examination of the problems that arise in trying to operationalize (make measurable) the theoretical propositions underlying power formulas. It is followed by a critical assessment of the concepts of psychological power as well as soft power. The subsequent power indexes are derived from the long tradition of statistics as a \textbackslash\textbackslash\textbackslash"state science\textbackslash\textbackslash\textbackslash" [Staatswissenschaft] with direct relevance to the objective of later power formulas, namely, the evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of states in comparison with other states. The first power formula here comes from 1741, the others all appeared in the period 1936 to 2010. A total of 69 operational power formulas are recorded and explained. These include Japanese and Chinese power formulas as well as the Indian designed National Security Index (NSI). In the second last chapter, the biographies of the designers of the power formulas (age, nationality, professional background) are compared, as well as the variables and weighting schemes. Most power formulas have been designed by Americans (37%), followed by Chinese (16%) and Germans (7%). A distinction is made between arbitrary and nonarbitrary weighting schemes. Whereas 73% of the operational power formulas use arbitrary weighting schemes, 17% derive the weights of variables exclusively via mathematical or statistical procedures, and 10% determine the weights of the variables with the assistance of perception surveys.