Hume on miracles: Bayesian interpretation, multiple testimony, and the existence of god

Abstract

Hume’s argument concerning miracles is interpreted by making approximations to terms in Bayes’s theorem. This formulation is then used to analyze the impact of multiple testimony. Individual testimonies which are ’nonmiraculous’ in Hume’s sense can in principle be accumulated to yield a high probability both for the occurrence of a single miracle and for the occurrence of at least one of a set of miracles. Conditions are given under which testimony for miracles may provide support for the existence of God.