Effect of nuclear weapons on historic trends in explosives

Abstract

The development of nuclear weapons resulted in a significant discontinuity in the progress of explosive technology as measured by the relative effectiveness factor (TNT equivalent per kg). This advance represented a leap forward equivalent to approximately 7,000 years of prior exponential progress in explosive power density. In contrast, this jump in effectiveness did not correspond to a clear improvement in cost-effectiveness. Data on the marginal and average costs of early nuclear weapons indicate they were not significantly more cost-effective, in terms of explosive power per dollar, than contemporary conventional explosives such as TNT or ammonium nitrate. The marginal cost per ton of TNT equivalent for the first atomic bombs was comparable to, or even higher than, that of chemical explosives from the same era. Thus, while nuclear technology introduced a revolutionary increase in destructive capability per unit of mass, it did not initially represent a discontinuous advance in economic efficiency for delivering explosive energy. – AI-generated abstract.