Astronomy, space exploration and the Great Filter

Abstract

This study examines how astronomy may help identify potential future filters that prevent intelligent life from reaching the interstellar, large-scale phase – a concept known as the Great Filter. The analysis focuses on two fundamental versions of the Filter: filtration in the past and filtration in the future. It discusses evidence for and alternative explanations of the Great Filter and identifies natural threats, biological threats, nuclear exchanges, unexpected physics, global warming, artificial intelligence, resource depletion, nanotechnology, and aliens as potential contributors to the Filter. The study suggests that astronomical observations can provide valuable data about the Great Filter, but many potential filters will leave no observable astronomical evidence unless astronomical capabilities are greatly advanced. Increasing astronomy skills to detect failed civilizations and understand their mistakes is proposed as a strategy to pass the Great Filter, although the cost-effectiveness of this approach compared to other existential risk mitigation measures is uncertain. – AI-generated abstract.