Retrospective on *Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth*

Abstract

Eric Kaufmann’s 2010 book “Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth” predicts a future where religious groups with high fertility rates, particularly fundamentalist ones, will experience substantial growth. The book focuses on groups like the Amish, who reject modern technology, and Haredi Jews. While some of the book’s predictions about high-fertility religious groups have come true, many have not. Overall, fertility rates have declined significantly among most religious groups, including Catholics, Mormons, and Muslims. While Muslim populations in Europe are projected to grow, they are unlikely to prevent population decline by 2050. The only substantial exceptions to declining fertility are Old Order Anabaptists and Haredi Jews. However, these groups face challenges, such as limited farmland availability for the Anabaptists and increasing labor force participation among Haredi Jews. The future global religious landscape will be shaped by declining populations in highly secular Asian countries and rapidly growing highly religious populations in sub-Saharan Africa. Uncertainty remains about future religiosity in sub-Saharan Africa and the continuation of its fertility decline. This matters because birth rates impact future economic growth, technological development, and political power. While immigration can help countries facing population decline, it is often unpopular and does not address global fertility rates.