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Holden Karnofsky Forecasting transformative AI: what's the burden of proof? online Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. But “transformative AI in the next few decades” is not as extraordinary a claim as one might think.

Forecasting transformative AI: what's the burden of proof?

Holden Karnofsky

Cold Takes, August 17, 2021

Abstract

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. But “transformative AI in the next few decades” is not as extraordinary a claim as one might think.

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