How to make the best of the most important century?

Abstract

The article discusses two contrasting frames for navigating the coming century, which the author argues will be marked by profound technological advancements driven by the development of artificial intelligence. The “caution” frame emphasizes the risks of developing technologies like PASTA (process for automating scientific and technological advancement) too quickly, leading to misaligned AI systems or adversarial technological maturity, potentially resulting in a galaxy under the control of a single entity. The “competition” frame, on the other hand, focuses on who controls and benefits from the productivity explosion driven by AI, potentially leading to a situation where authoritarian regimes or companies with questionable values gain undue influence. The author expresses concerns that the “competition” frame may be overrated due to its allure of immediate action, while the more nuanced and potentially less exciting “caution” frame may be overlooked. The author argues that the crucial question is how difficult the AI alignment problem is—the problem of ensuring that AI systems are aligned with human values—as this will determine how much weight to place on each frame and what actions are most likely to be helpful in navigating the potential risks and opportunities of the coming century. – AI-generated abstract.