Weak point in "most important century": lock-in

Abstract

The article explores the concept of ’lock-in’, arguing that advanced AI, particularly digital people, could lead to societal stability lasting for billions of years. This would mean that decisions made in the current century could have a profound, lasting impact on the future of civilization. The article discusses factors that could contribute to lock-in, such as aging and death, population changes, and natural events, noting that technological advancement could significantly diminish their influence. However, the article also acknowledges that competition between societies could remain a source of dynamism, potentially preventing lock-in. The article concludes by outlining three categories of long-run futures: full discretionary lock-in, predictable competitive dynamics, and true dynamism. It posits that the current century holds immense significance because it could determine which of these futures we ultimately realize. – AI-generated abstract.