AI timelines: Where the arguments, and the "experts," stand

Abstract

This piece starts with a summary of when we should expect transformative AI to be developed, based on the multiple angles covered previously in the series. I think this is useful, even if you’ve read all of the previous pieces, but if you’d like to skip it, click here. I then address the question: “Why isn’t there a robust expert consensus on this topic, and what does that mean for us?”.