Clarifying AI x-risk

Abstract

This article analyzes the probability of an imminent global nuclear war and estimates it to be about 1 in 6. It decomposes this estimate into three factors: the probability that Ukraine wins the war, the probability that Russia responds with nuclear weapons if it does not win, and the probability that this leads to a global nuclear war. The author argues that the first two probabilities are relatively high, at 30% and 70%, respectively. The third probability is estimated to be around 80%, making the overall probability of global nuclear war quite high. The author also explores potential de-escalation strategies to reduce this risk. – AI-generated abstract.