Verbal probability expressions in national intelligence estimates : A comprehensive analysis of trends from the fifties through post 9/11

Abstract

This research presents the findings of a study that analyzed words of estimative probability in the key judgments of National Intelligence Estimates from the 1950s through the 2000s. The research found that of the 50 words examined, only 13 were statistically significant. Furthermore, interesting trends have emerged when the words are broken down into English modals, terminology that conveys analytical assessments and words employed by the National Intelligence Council as of 2006. One of the more intriguing findings is that use of the word will has by far been the most popular for analysts, registering over 700 occurrences throughout the decades; however, a word of such certainty is problematic in the sense that intelligence should never deal with 100% certitude. The relatively low occurrence and wide variety of word usage across the decades demonstrates a real lack of consistency in the way analysts have been conveying assessments over the past 58 years. Finally, the researcher suggests the Kesselman List of Estimative Words for use in the IC. The word list takes into account the literature review findings as well as the results of this study in equating odds with verbal probabilities.