Strong Reservations About “new Insights Into the Demographics of the Paraguayan War”

Abstract

The conclusions drawn by Whigham and Potthast from a newly discovered 1870 census regarding Paraguayan population loss during the War of the Triple Alliance are questionable. The reliability of the 1870 census is likely overestimated, as it was conducted in a thoroughly disorganized post-war environment and Paraguayan censuses of the era were prone to significant undercounting. An alternative census from January 1873, reported by Behm and Wagner, indicates a higher population of 221,079 and should be considered more reliable due to its detailed structure and the more stable conditions at the time of its collection. Furthermore, the low 1870 population figures proposed by Whigham and Potthast are inconsistent with later census data from 1886 when plausible population growth rates are applied. Using the more credible 1873 figures as a baseline, the population loss during the war is recalculated to a range of 43% to 52%. This revision, while lower than the 60% to 69% suggested by Whigham and Potthast, still confirms a catastrophic demographic decline of roughly half the pre-war population. – AI-generated abstract.