Owen Cotton-Barratt on epistemic systems & layers of defence against potential global catastrophes

Abstract

Humanity’s survival is a complex issue, requiring a multifaceted approach to risk mitigation. One perspective is to classify extinction risks based on how they originate, how they scale up, and how they could cause extinction. This leads to a layered understanding of defenses: preventing small disasters from occurring, preventing them from growing into larger disasters, and finally, preventing large-scale disasters from causing human extinction. This framework suggests that the most effective interventions are those that reduce the probability of a disaster proceeding from one layer to the next, regardless of how large the risk is at each stage. It also highlights the importance of societal resilience to unexpected catastrophes, especially those that could lead to a global collapse. Finally, the paper argues for the importance of developing and promoting virtues that encourage good decision-making processes among individuals and institutions. Such virtues, which include clear thinking, truth-seeking, and scope sensitivity, are necessary for navigating an uncertain future and ensuring the long-term flourishing of humanity. – AI-generated abstract.