Great power conflict

Abstract

Great power conflict between major nations such as the US, Russia, or China poses a severe global risk, with potential for unprecedented devastation including billions of deaths and the erosion of international cooperation on arms control and the safe deployment of new technologies. Such conflict is considered to significantly heighten existential risks, including nuclear war, and exacerbate other dangers related to advanced technologies, with a plausible estimated 45% chance of occurring this century. While extensive governmental and diplomatic efforts are ongoing, the tractability of new interventions and the identification of effective supplementary measures are areas of uncertainty. Further research is deemed crucial for developing and implementing strategies to reduce the likelihood of catastrophic conflicts and their potential damage. Despite reservations regarding new, actionable interventions, the immense scale and potential impact of great power conflict underscore its status as a pressing global problem requiring more thorough investigation. – AI-generated abstract.