Tiny probabilities of vast utilities: a problem for long-termism?

Abstract

There are many views about how to handle tiny probabilities of vast utilities, but they all are controversial. Some of these views undermine arguments for mainstream long-termist projects and some do not. However, long-termist projects shelter within the herd of ordinary behaviors: It is difficult to find a view that undermines arguments for mainstream long-termist projects without also undermining arguments for behaviors like fastening your seatbelt, voting, or building safer nuclear reactors. Amidst this controversy, it would be naive to say things like “Even if the probability of preventing extinction is one in a quadrillion, we should still prioritize x-risk reduction over everything else…”. Yet it would also be naive to say things like “Long-termists are victims of Pascal’s Mugging.”.