Soft takeoff can still lead to decisive strategic advantage

Abstract

AI takeoff may follow an industrial revolution–like pattern, with continuous growth across various projects. Despite this, decisive strategic advantage is still possible. Soft takeoff AI can allow a project or AI to gain a 3–0.3 year lead over others, which historically has been sufficient for a nation-state to gain such an advantage. Even when other parties pursue AI development rapidly, a leading project can maintain its lead partly by hoarding innovations. This argument holds if AI takeoff accelerates technology growth by 10–100 times, but not if it increases the rate of leaks tenfold or more. – AI-generated abstract.