Update on civilizational collapse research

Abstract

This document examines the possibility of civilizational collapse and the potential for recovery. It argues that several scenarios exist with a greater than 1% probability of causing a collapse within the next century, resulting in the loss of key technologies and a significant decline in the population. However, these collapses are likely to be temporary, with full recovery occurring within a few decades to a couple of hundred years. The document emphasizes the importance of state-level interventions for effective recovery, as individuals lack the necessary resources and infrastructure. While information archival efforts are beneficial, they are less impactful than state-led initiatives. The document also explores various factors that could impact humanity’s technological carrying capacity in a post-collapse environment, such as climate change, radionuclides, and persistent pathogens. Finally, it discusses the uncertainty surrounding the existential risk profile of a recovered civilization, suggesting that interventions aimed at improving the post-disaster civilization may be competitive with those focused on the present civilization. – AI-generated abstract.