Nuclear War Is Unlikely To Cause Human Extinction

Abstract

A full-scale nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction, despite the widespread belief that it would. While kinetic destruction and radiation pose little risk, climate alteration through a nuclear winter is the most plausible mechanism for extinction. However, even in the most severe nuclear winter scenarios, some human populations would likely survive. The Robock model, which predicts the most severe cooling effects from nuclear war, is likely to overestimate the risk, and nuclear war planners are aware of the nuclear winter risk and can incorporate it into their targeting plans. Moreover, human beings are more robust to drastic changes in temperature than most other mammals, and modern technology would enable some populations to survive even a massive loss of agriculture. – AI-generated abstract.