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LessWrong Inside/Outside view online An Inside View on a topic involves making predictions based on your understanding of the details of the process. An Outside View involves ignoring these details and using an estimate based on a class of roughly similar previous cases (alternatively, this is called reference class forecasting), though it has been pointed out that the possible meaning has expanded beyond that.

Inside/Outside view

LessWrong

LessWrong Wiki, 2020

Abstract

An Inside View on a topic involves making predictions based on your understanding of the details of the process. An Outside View involves ignoring these details and using an estimate based on a class of roughly similar previous cases (alternatively, this is called reference class forecasting), though it has been pointed out that the possible meaning has expanded beyond that.

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