Pascal's mugging

Abstract

This article examines a thought experiment known as ‘Pascal’s Mugging’, which explores the potential conflict between rationality and intuitive beliefs when dealing with extremely low probabilities and potentially infinite payoffs. The author presents a scenario in which a mugger claims to possess magical powers and offers a seemingly unbeatable deal to a utilitarian individual. The deal involves a small initial loss for a chance to receive an astronomical amount of utility in the future. The mugger argues that even with a vanishingly small probability of fulfilling the promise, the expected utility of accepting the deal is overwhelmingly positive. The author then discusses the potential pitfalls of relying on expected utility calculations in such situations, highlighting the potential for cognitive biases and the limitations of dealing with infinities in decision-making. – AI-generated abstract