In defence of epistemic modesty

Abstract

This paper argues for a strong form of epistemic modesty, suggesting that in most cases, individuals should prioritize the consensus of experts over their own personal convictions. It contends that relying on an idealized consensus of knowledgeable peers offers a superior epistemic strategy, particularly in domains where specialized knowledge and expertise are crucial. The paper explores various motivations for epistemic modesty, highlighting how relying on individual judgments can lead to biased assessments and overconfidence. By drawing on examples like day trading, the paper emphasizes the importance of considering the broader evidence base and the potential pitfalls of relying solely on one’s own intuitions. It ultimately advocates for a more widespread adoption of epistemic modesty, especially within communities known for their intellectual rigor and pursuit of rational inquiry.