What are the odds?: Assessing the probability of a nuclear war

Abstract

Nuclear weapons possession by major powers has been controversial. Some posit low odds for nuclear war, whereas others posit high odds. This article assesses the probability of nuclear war over the past 66 years across three pathways: international crises, accidents or misperceptions, and conventional war. The assessment is based on Bayesian statistical reasoning and other statistical techniques. The estimated combined probability of nuclear war from the three pathways is high. Consideration of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis does not reverse this high estimate. – AI-generated abstract