The significance, persistence, contingency framework

Abstract

This paper introduces the Significance, Persistence, Contingency (SPC) Framework as a new tool for estimating the instrumental value (typically interpreted as expected value) of events, compared to relevant counterfactuals, allowing the evaluation of problems and the impact of decisions on the long-run future. The framework decomposes estimated value change (∆V) into significance (Sig), persistence (Per), and contingency (Con), defined as the change in value per unit time due to an event, its duration, and the share of duration attributable to it. For marginal analysis, semi-elasticities may be used. The SPC framework can be integrated into the Importance, Tractability, Neglectedness (ITN) framework for prioritizing global problems, in which importance is the marginal benefit of progress, tractability the marginal progress made per unit work, and neglectedness the inverse of work invested. – AI-generated abstract.