Should we aim for flourishing over mere survival? The Better Futures series.

Abstract

Future-oriented altruism, often centered on ensuring humanity’s survival, should instead prioritize actively fostering future flourishing. This perspective is based on a two-factor model where the expected value of the future is the product of survival probability and the value achieved given survival. It is argued that society is significantly closer to maximizing its chance of survival (e.g., an estimated 80% likelihood this century) than it is to realizing its potential for flourishing (e.g., achieving only 10% of the best feasible future value). This disparity suggests that the problem of non-flourishing is substantially larger in scale and more neglected than the risk of non-survival. The accompanying essay series seeks to identify pathways to “viatopia”—a state enabling society to self-guide towards near-optimal outcomes, characterized by minimal existential risk, the thriving of diverse moral perspectives, preservation of future possibilities, and thoughtful collective decision-making, rather than a fixed utopian vision. This framework highlights the critical importance of interventions aimed at enhancing the quality of the long-term future, beyond merely securing its existence. – AI-generated abstract.