The basic case for better futures

Abstract

This report introduces a simplified model for evaluating actions aimed at producing long-term good outcomes: the “SF model”, where the expected value of the future can be approximated by the product of two variables, Surviving (S) and Flourishing (F). Surviving represents the probability of avoiding a near-total loss of value this century (an “existential catastrophe”), while Flourishing represents the expected value of the future conditional on our survival. Using this model and the “scale, neglectedness, tractability,” framework, we argue that interventions aimed at improving Flourishing are of comparable priority to those focused on Surviving.