Sharpening your forecasting skills

Abstract

Philip Tetlock’s study of hundreds of experts making thousands of predictions over two decades found that the average prediction was " little better than guessing. " That’s the bad news. Tetlock, along with his colleagues, participated in a forecasting tournament sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community. That work identified " superforecasters, " people who consistently make superior predictions. That’s the good news. The key to superforecasters is how they think. They are actively open-minded, intellectually humble, numerate, thoughtful updaters, and hard working. Superforecasters achieve better results when they are part of a team. But since there are pros and cons to working in teams, training is essential. Instruction in methods to reduce bias in forecasts improves outcomes. There must be a close link between training and implementation. The best leaders recognize that proper, even bold, action requires good thinking.