Staking our future: deontic long-termism and the non-identity problem

Abstract

Ethical longtermism argues that the best ethical choice is the one that maximizes good outcomes for the far future, even if it involves sacrificing present interests. This view, based on the Stakes Principle, prioritizes maximizing overall well-being over individual concerns, but is challenged by thought experiments where sacrificing one for many is deemed ethically unacceptable. The paper then examines the Non-Identity Problem, questioning the obligation to maximize future well-being when there are no competing claims. It argues that while actions can be justified without being obligatory, demonstrating that even though waiting to conceive a child might be better, it is not ethically obligatory. This highlights the distinction between axiological longtermism, which prioritizes maximizing good outcomes, and deontic longtermism, which focuses on obligatory actions.