Evaluation of some technology forecasts from "The Year 2000"

Abstract

To better inform our thinking about long-term philanthropic investment and hits-based giving, I (Luke Muehlhauser) have begun to investigate the historical track record of long-range forecasting and planning. I hope to publish additional findings later, but for now, I’ll share just one example finding from this investigation,1 concerning one of the most famous and respected products of professional futurism: the 1967 book The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-three Years, co-authored by Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener.