How feasible is long-range forecasting?
Open Philanthropy, October 10, 2019
Abstract
How accurate do long-range (≥10yr) forecasts tend to be, and how much should we rely on them? As an initial exploration of this question, I sought to study the track record of long-range forecasting exercises from the past. Unfortunately, my key finding so far is that it is difficult to learn much of value from those exercises.
