Superforecasting in a nutshell

Abstract

Superforecasting is a method to produce reliable, accurate forecasts for questions for which traditional predictive analytics cannot be used because of the lack of data. The method includes identifying individuals who are consistently able to make more accurate forecasts than others, known as superforecasters. Predictions are made by asking superforecasters to aggregate their forecasts, producing well-calibrated results that can inform decision-making in various domains, especially when the accuracy of forecasts is not routinely measured. The effectiveness of superforecasting has been demonstrated through rigorous studies and is available through companies specializing in aggregating forecasts from highly accurate forecasters. – AI-generated abstract.