What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting

Abstract

Three distinct types of goodness are identified in this paper: 1) the correspondence between forecasters’ judgments and their forecasts (type 1 goodness, or consistency), 2) the correspondence between the forecasts and the matching observations (type 2 goodness, or quality), and 3) the incremental economic and/or other benefits realized by decision makers through the use of the forecasts (type 3 goodness, or value). Each type of goodness is defined and described in some detail. In addition, issues related to the measurement of consistency, quality, and value are discussed. -from Author