Human accomplishment: The pursuit of excellence in the arts and sciences, 800 B.C. to 1950
New York, 2003
Abstract
Historiometric analysis of achievement in the arts and sciences from 800 B.C. to 1950 indicates that human excellence is an objective phenomenon susceptible to statistical measurement through expert consensus. By quantifying the frequency and depth of mentions in international reference works, a recurring hyperbolic distribution emerges—Lotka’s Law—demonstrating that a small fraction of individuals is responsible for the vast majority of significant progress. These contributions show an overwhelming concentration in Europe and North America, specifically among males, with a notable surge in Jewish achievement following 19th-century emancipation. The emergence of such high-level output is correlated with specific environmental variables, including economic wealth, political freedom, and urban density. However, these factors are insufficient without cultural foundations that emphasize individual autonomy and a sense of transcendental purpose. Great accomplishment appears to require a rigorous organizing structure and an orientation toward objective concepts of truth, beauty, and the good. Despite the raw increase in historical records, the per capita rate of human accomplishment in the West has declined since the late 19th century. This stagnation suggests that modern secularization and the rise of relativism may have eroded the necessary philosophical and motivational frameworks that previously catalyzed human excellence. – AI-generated abstract.
Quotes from this work
Can you think of any earlier moment in history in which you would prefer to live your life? One’s initial reaction may be to answer yes. The thought of living in Renaissance Florence or Samuel Johnson’s London or Paris in La Belle Époque is seductive. But then comes the catch: In whatever era you choose, your station in life will be determined by lottery, according to the distribution of well-being at that time—which means that in Renaissance Florence you are probably going to be poor, work hard at a menial job, and find an early grave.